This is what Lloyds of London is saying:1. A pandemic is inevitable.
2. A repeat of the 1918 event is expected to cause a global recession with estimated impacts ranging from 1% to 10% of global GDP. Most industries will be affected, some more than others. In particular, industries with significant face to face contact will be impacted significantly.
3. The World Health Organisation reports that we have passed the “interpandemic period” and are now in the first stage of the “pandemic alert period”, due to concerns of Avian Influenza H5N1.
4. Taking the 1918 pandemic as an example, it infected around 30% of the population and had a case mortality rate of up to 2.5%. Unusually, it most affected those aged between 20 and 40 (the young and old were affected, but no more than normal seasonal flu). The pandemic killed between 20 million and 100 million people.
5. If the pandemic starts elsewhere, it will probably reach the UK within 2-4 weeks.
6. Until a virus has emerged there are so many unknowns we cannot prepare a vaccine. It then takes several months to isolate the virus and prepare a vaccine; which will therefore not be available to fight the first wave of pandemic.
7. Unlike the 1918 pandemic, global networks, global travel, larger populations, concentrations in cities, large pools of sick or incubating people in buildings or on public transport will accelerate the spread.
According to Lloyds, many businesses are not prepared for this inevitable event which could lead to prolonged employee absentee levels of 50% and many fatalities. Their finding include:
1. Over three-quarters of companies have inadequate plans for coping with a flu pandemic.
2. Around a third of businesses have no strategy at all, while 14% have only rudimentary contingency plans.
3. Around a third of executives are unaware of how their companies intend to deal with the threat, only 22% are comfortable that they are prepared.
For a full copy of the report, contact David.
Business Continuity Management is addressed as a one-day workshop on the Security Management Stage 2 Course. The next Stage 2 course takes place in the UK, 9-20 February 2009. Contact Janet for details.
To enquire about how an ARC associate can assist you in preparing your Pandemic Business Continuity Plan contact David.
