The 15 delegates attending the Security Management Stage 1 Course in Stellenbosch, South Africa, have been studying Crisis Management as part of the intensive 10-day curriculum. In addition to identifying crises specific to their organisations and countries, delegates examined some of the external factors that could cause future crises, including severe adverse whether phenomena as a result of climate change.
Delegates were shown a report by Lord Stern, UK government advisor on climate change, who has recently admitted that he underestimated the scale of climate change in his report two years ago. Lord Stern Warns of catastrophic effects if temperatures continue to rise beyond 2 degrees; the figure most politicians hoped we could keep to by 2100. “But we now face risks of 4, 5, or 6 degree increases, sometime towards the end of this century. 5 degrees centigrade is a temperature the world has not seen for 30 to 50 million years."
Scientists warn that a rise of even 3 degrees could be enough to devastate whole areas, turning much of Southern Europe into desert. Under this scenario the consequences for Africa long before 2100 are dire.
